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Post by EFMTFTV on Mar 18, 2012 21:57:04 GMT
I personally think we'll fall just short, not because I suspect our own form will slump but because I think too many teams with games in hand on us will pick up the required points to push us further away
Naturally I hope I'm wrong
One things for sure though, if we keep this team together for next season and we are still in this league I think we'll win it (as long as we lose moneybags Brackley and another team doesn't suddendly become loaded)
Thought?
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Post by COYS on Mar 18, 2012 22:13:09 GMT
Nice thread, EFM.
Personally, I think we have good chance. Form seems to be so important in this division and a run of results is so important in a league where anyone seems to be able to beat anyone.
Looks like we're peaking at the right time and the next three home games are key. If we take nine points from nine, who knows where we'll be? We'll definitely be right up there.
Looking at our goal difference though, I'm worried that it might bite us in the bottom; we may just miss out on the playoffs in the cruellest of fashions. That said, I'm staying optimistic so I'll vote 'yes.'
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Post by minty on Mar 19, 2012 10:03:49 GMT
I hope i'm wrong but i think we'll fall short as well.
I agree with EFMTFTV that we'll win the league next year but depends on who else is in the league.
Anyone know if there are any money bags in the two divisions below us? Bideford look to be walking one of the divisions on relatively small crowds?
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Post by Hatboy on Mar 19, 2012 21:59:19 GMT
Not sure we have enough games left to collect enough points to make the play-offs, unless of course we win them all !
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Post by EFMTFTV on Mar 19, 2012 22:18:49 GMT
I hope i'm wrong but i think we'll fall short as well. I agree with EFMTFTV that we'll win the league next year but depends on who else is in the league. Anyone know if there are any money bags in the two divisions below us? Bideford look to be walking one of the divisions on relatively small crowds? Haven't heard anything about Bideford having money, I think they were there or thereabouts last season, St Neots on the other hand seem to have some cash, they have Stefan Moore playing for them who they apparently paif a 5 figure transfer for in the United Counties League and has quite a league career (only 28yrs old) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Moore |
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Post by EFMTFTV on Mar 21, 2012 8:05:56 GMT
End of play on Sat March 31st is when I predict we'll have a better idea of our destiny, we would have played 2 other home games by then, one against Stourbridge, we don't play on March 31st but at the end of that round of games we'll all have played the same amount of games, nobody will have the games in hand on us
Stourbridge dropped points last night but to Totten but Chesham and Leamington won leaving us 6 points and 3 positions behind
I think Totten will get in there and I think Chippenham behind us are too far away so I make it 3 from Cambridge, Oxford, Chesham, Stourbridge, Leamington and us
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Post by COYS on Mar 21, 2012 15:21:36 GMT
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Post by Daedalus on Mar 22, 2012 19:21:35 GMT
Pretty much agree with EFMTFTV's views in the first post. I hope I'm wrong though.
I have a computer program that will do a pretty basic results prediction based on form. This is what it came up with when I asked it to show me the final table:
Brackley Town 82
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Oxford City 78
AFC Totton 77
Cambridge City 73
Leamington 71
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Chesham United 70
St. Albans City 70
That has us winning all of our home matches, beating Cirencester Town away and drawing the other two away games, which already seems quite optimistic!
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Post by Daedalus on Mar 22, 2012 19:35:14 GMT
Something to make us more optimistic though - here is a form table for the last 10 matches:
No images allowed -http://i811.photobucket.com/albums/zz40/Crouchaldinho_SACFC/Saints%20Stuff/form.jpg
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Post by Boomer on Mar 22, 2012 19:36:23 GMT
Hi D,
I have taken a look at the remaining fixtures for the top 8 and have put a forecast against each match. I am coming up with this -
Brackley Town 84
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AFC Totton 73
Cambridge City 73
Oxford City 72
Chesham United 72
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Leamington 71
Stourbridge 69
St. Albans City 69
I think I will be revising this on a weekly basis!
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Post by Daedalus on Mar 22, 2012 19:54:17 GMT
Interesting Boomer. And yes to revising on a weekly basis with hopefully some favourable results going our way to work into the recalculations!  |
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Post by barringtongobi on Mar 22, 2012 21:59:29 GMT
Agree with EFMTFTV - we will fall just short, however have a great chance next season. The early season away form was too poor. Was it 4 points from our first 10 games? A couple of extra wins in the first few months & we would probably have timed our current form perfectly. Still, if we can keep this side together, we know that the league has no teams to fear. Signing Micah Hyde is when it all started to go right...
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mrlastbus
Saints Trialist
ticket to ride
Posts: 8
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Post by mrlastbus on Mar 22, 2012 22:03:59 GMT
It can be done......COYS
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Post by Aries on Mar 23, 2012 16:00:12 GMT
I have a spreadsheet that calcuates final placings based on six-game current form. The current final placings see us 8th... | Brackley | 84 | | Totton | 76 | | Oxford | 72 | | Chesham | 72 | | Cambridge | 71 | | Stourbridge | 70 | | Leamington | 68 | | St Albans City | 67 | | Bedford | 58 | | Chippenham | 50 |
I'll be updating it after each set of games. |
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Post by Boomer on Mar 24, 2012 19:43:59 GMT
With Cambridge City and the Saints both drawing, revision 1 after today's results -
Brackley Town 84
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AFC Totton 73
Oxford City 72
Chesham United 72
Cambridge City 71
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Leamington 71
Stourbridge 69
St. Albans City 67
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Post by Aries on Mar 26, 2012 14:43:07 GMT
Cambridge and Stourbridge swap places after this week's games... | Brackley | 85 | | Totton | 76 | | Oxford | 74 | | Chesham | 73 | | Stourbridge | 69 | | Cambridge | 69 | | Leamington | 69 | | St Albans City | 66 | | Bedford | 59 | | Chippenham | 50 |
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Post by Boomer on Mar 31, 2012 17:37:14 GMT
Revision 2 after today's results -
Brackley Town 83
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Oxford City 74
AFC Totton 73
Chesham United 72
Stourbridge 71
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Cambridge City 71
Leamington 71
St. Albans City 67
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Post by EFMTFTV on Mar 31, 2012 18:35:48 GMT
All the results went against us today with Oxford, Stourbridge, Chesham and Cambridge all winning leaving us 7 points behind with 5 to play
My spies at Chesham say Totten looked dreadful and the money man has apparently left so it's not too far removed to say they could fall out the play off picture as well, their form has tailed off quite a lot as well
Chesham play their game in hand on Tuesday away to Weymouth, they also play Sat and Mon (when we play them) 3 games in a week for them could be an advantage to us
Other significant fixture still to come
7th April
Oxford v Cambridge
9th April
Chesham v St Albans
21st April
Stourbridge v Totten
Oxford v Brackley
Oxford can go to within a point of Brackley if they win their game in hand which is played in the final week of the season (April 25th A v Frome), if they won this game against Brackley (presuming they remain in contention as do Brackley) then they could swipe the title, bad news for us as I hoped our game at Brackley would be a 'dead rubber' for them
Final week
Brackley v St Albans
Leamington v Chesham
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Post by Hatboy on Apr 3, 2012 21:09:55 GMT
Chesham picked up another point tonight with a 2-2 draw @ the Muff, Effiong scored again
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Post by Boomer on Apr 9, 2012 19:10:39 GMT
Revision 3 after today's results - Brackley Town 85 ----------------- Oxford City 74 Chesham United 74 Cambridge City 73 AFC Totton 72 ----------------- Stourbridge 70 Leamington 69 St. Albans City 65 And no, we cannot now make the play offs as our goal difference is so poor. We can possibly nick 7th place from Leamington; that is the best we can really hope for. I can also see AFC Totton losing out to Stourbridge. Stourbridge play them the last but one game of the season and AFC Totton cannot buy a win at the moment. www.footballwebpages.co.uk/southprem?today |
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Post by EFMTFTV on Apr 10, 2012 7:44:46 GMT
We paid the price for too many draws, I agree about Totten as they are in freefall, the moneyman has left so I'm guessing they won't be a challenge next season and hopefully we will be
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Post by minty on Apr 10, 2012 8:57:57 GMT
All a bit of a shame really. All those games where we have taken the lead and thrown it away. If we had won those games we would have got into the play offs and with Cirencester(bottom), Chippenham(in freefall) still to play, who knows.
Lots of ifs and buts but keep most of this side together and have a whole summer to prepare for next season, i think we'll be up there.
Still let's enjoy the last three games regardless.
Looking forward to next season already!!
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Post by Aries on Apr 10, 2012 10:04:27 GMT
I've ditched my spreadsheet and have written software that predicts each remaining match on current form of the home and away teams, merges the for and against totals for each, guesses the score and generates the final table.
On four game form the following table will be...
Brackley Town P 42 36 Pts 84
Cambridge City P 42 29 Pts 77
Chesham United P 42 25 Pts 74
Oxford City P 41 23 Pts 74
AFC Totton P 42 31 Pts 72
Leamington P 42 14 Pts 71
Stourbridge P 42 20 Pts 69
St Albans City P 42 2 Pts 65
Frome Town P 42 3 Pts 60
Hitchin Town P 42 4 Pts 58
Barwell P 42 3 Pts 57
Bedford Town P 42 -8 Pts 56
Arlesey Town P 42 -5 Pts 53
Bashley P 42 -18 Pts 51
Chippenham Town P 42 -3 Pts 50
Redditch United P 42 -10 Pts 48
Swindon Supermarine P 42 -32 Pts 46
Weymouth P 42 -21 Pts 45
Banbury United P 42 -12 Pts 43
Hemel Hempstead Town P 41 -22 Pts 42
Evesham United P 42 -26 Pts 39
Cirencester Town P 42 -33 Pts 31
It shows pretty much the same dismal story. When I ran it last week Weymouth were relegated alas our draw with them has helped their cause!
Sorry about the formatting I'll make it generate it when I get a moment!
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